Predictions for the next year, some bold, some likely. (Add any of your as a comment)
Technology and Science: Next generation DVDs will come out, confuse consumers, and be replaced with a completely new technology by the end of the year. Phones will start coming with Mp3 players built in. Wireless cable television (through local towers, not satellites) will start getting lots of attention. We will discover nothing useful on Mars. The Chinese put a man on the moon.
Business: One of the failing airlines with promise to never overbook passengers and will increase their profits. Google will lose a large market share to programs like Coperic that utilize multiple search engine and can search your computer (and network) within seconds. The Stock market will go up, while the economy stays mostly stagnant. The DJIA is currently at 10,800.
Government: The US will have less than 50,000 troops in Iraq by years end (currently over 120,000. I’m not counting troops at army bases inside Iraq that are cut off from the people and are in no real danger). Bush will fail at one of his two big initiatives (privatizing health care and permanent tax cuts). There is a major terrorist attack on foreign soil (I’m thinking Japan or India).
Sports: The Yankees will not win the World Series. The Knicks (currently in first place) will not get past the first round of the playoffs. If the they don’t have to play the Jets, the Colts will win the Super Bowl. The NHL will not be back next year either (I’m thinking there will be an entire replacement league, maybe Mark Cuban will start it). I will continue not to care about any college sport.
Personal: Lindee and I will get married a live happily every after.
Friday, December 31, 2004
Wednesday, December 29, 2004
Music and Foreign Policy
A little over 17 days till the wedding and things are coming into place. The little things are finally getting done, like hiring musicians and a DJ. I’m at the point were things simple need to get done; no more time for research and exploration. And to my slight surprise, things are progressing nicely. There is still a lot we have to do, but much of it needs to be done on the days right before the wedding (and on the wedding day). The only remaining item of contention is a family dinner the night before the wedding. I would like a nice dinner with my family and Lindee’s family. Sounds easy, doesn’t it?
Right now I am reading Charlie Wilson’s War, a book that my brother highly recommended. It is about how the US backed Afghan fundamentalists in their Jihad against the Soviet Union in the 1980’s. If you don’t know much about how the US government works, than you will find this book mind-blowing; however, I am finding it rather mundane. The writing is only average and the author insists on telling the life story of every single character when they are introduced. This kills any sense of momentum. More on the book when I am done.
The lesson that should be learned from the Afghan war against the Soviets is the same that Augustus Julian learned more that 1600 years ago (I read Julian, but Gore Vidal a few months ago and thought it was very good). The simple foreign policy lesson is that the enemy of my enemy may not be your friend. In Julian’s time, this proved itself over and over again (his predecessor hired barbarians from northern Europe to attack the Gaul’s. The barbarians won, but decided to stay in Gaul and occasionally attacking Roman outposts). In the 80’s the US gave money and weapons (paid for by US taxpayers) to Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and a host of other country’s that we not find ourselves aligned against. Today we are giving huge sums of money to other Iraqis and Afghans (supposedly better ones) as well as Pakistan (which has a military dictatorship and nuclear capabilities). This is billions of dollars that could be spend on education, social services, tax refunds, our even our own military. The lesson is that it is unwise to bribe someone to be your friend with something that they can one day use against us. We have to think long-term. Instead of arming a new Iraqi government will expensive guns and weapons, maybe we should spend out money to buy as many weapons from as possible from the population. Tell ammunition manufacturers that the US will give huge sums of money if they can keep their weapons out of Iraq. Treat your friends like your friends and your enemies like your enemies.
Right now I am reading Charlie Wilson’s War, a book that my brother highly recommended. It is about how the US backed Afghan fundamentalists in their Jihad against the Soviet Union in the 1980’s. If you don’t know much about how the US government works, than you will find this book mind-blowing; however, I am finding it rather mundane. The writing is only average and the author insists on telling the life story of every single character when they are introduced. This kills any sense of momentum. More on the book when I am done.
The lesson that should be learned from the Afghan war against the Soviets is the same that Augustus Julian learned more that 1600 years ago (I read Julian, but Gore Vidal a few months ago and thought it was very good). The simple foreign policy lesson is that the enemy of my enemy may not be your friend. In Julian’s time, this proved itself over and over again (his predecessor hired barbarians from northern Europe to attack the Gaul’s. The barbarians won, but decided to stay in Gaul and occasionally attacking Roman outposts). In the 80’s the US gave money and weapons (paid for by US taxpayers) to Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and a host of other country’s that we not find ourselves aligned against. Today we are giving huge sums of money to other Iraqis and Afghans (supposedly better ones) as well as Pakistan (which has a military dictatorship and nuclear capabilities). This is billions of dollars that could be spend on education, social services, tax refunds, our even our own military. The lesson is that it is unwise to bribe someone to be your friend with something that they can one day use against us. We have to think long-term. Instead of arming a new Iraqi government will expensive guns and weapons, maybe we should spend out money to buy as many weapons from as possible from the population. Tell ammunition manufacturers that the US will give huge sums of money if they can keep their weapons out of Iraq. Treat your friends like your friends and your enemies like your enemies.
Tuesday, December 21, 2004
Biggest News Ever
Maybe this will be the test to see if anyone actually reads this anymore. I haven’t written in a while because of the overwhelmingness of life.
But in the mist of all the confusion a little miracle happened. Its not often that one can say that something will affect their entire life in a meaningful way, but here it is...
Right now, flying in the skies is my darling love lindee. And in the sky, in that plane, in that lindee, there is a molecule of a new life. The little molecule swims around playing and sucking its brand new thumb. It has little eyes, and little fingers, and a little heart that goes “chugga-chugga-chugga-chugga...”. Lindee and I made this little molecule that will grow and grow until one day it pops outs as a glorious ray of sunshine and life.
My life will never be the same. If I wasn’t so busy I would be overjoyed and anxious, but I will hopefully have time for that in a little while. For now, we are referring to out little offspring as “the molecule”. If it’s a girl that I am leaning towards Mollie, if it is a boy that I’m thinking about Punter.
But in the mist of all the confusion a little miracle happened. Its not often that one can say that something will affect their entire life in a meaningful way, but here it is...
Right now, flying in the skies is my darling love lindee. And in the sky, in that plane, in that lindee, there is a molecule of a new life. The little molecule swims around playing and sucking its brand new thumb. It has little eyes, and little fingers, and a little heart that goes “chugga-chugga-chugga-chugga...”. Lindee and I made this little molecule that will grow and grow until one day it pops outs as a glorious ray of sunshine and life.
My life will never be the same. If I wasn’t so busy I would be overjoyed and anxious, but I will hopefully have time for that in a little while. For now, we are referring to out little offspring as “the molecule”. If it’s a girl that I am leaning towards Mollie, if it is a boy that I’m thinking about Punter.
Wednesday, December 15, 2004
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