Dan Lipka Web Log

I don't understand why democratic mega-donors don't create Super PACS to split Republican voters.  Basically, they should be running and supporting "alternative" Republican candidates for every election.  In the Alabama Senate race they should be running ads to support every possible Republican white-in candidate.  They should create a functional political party that is pro-conservative values, but anti-corporate greed.  And another party that is just the opposite.  Super PACS are terrible for democracy and terrible for this county, but if they are allowed to exist, the Democrats should use them wisely. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/08/us/georgia-teacher-bullet-shot-video.html “I got a bet,” he continued. “I bet by the time you’re 21, someone’s going to put a bullet right through your head, O.K.? And it might be me, the one that does it.” That was a high school science teacher, caught on videotape, threatening a student.  There is no ambiguity here.  There are dozens of witnesses.  Yet, the teacher is currently on "paid administrative leave".  What is the problem here; if the video is confirmed (which should take about 15 minutes after asking the students in the room) this person should be fired immediately.  He should be barred from teaching in any public school for 10 years, and the teacher's union should applaud that decision.  I will never, ever understand why teachers' union depend those who represent the very worst of teachers.  There might be instances of "gray areas", but this is not one of them. A teacher is literally suggesting that he mig

It might have taken a long time, but my father eventually succeeded in impacting a message in my brain to turn of the lights, especially at night or when I'm leaving the house.  Every night, there is a voice in my head that demands that I turn off the lights.  Every morning, before I leave for work, I go around the house and turn off all the lights that were left on.  Deep inside my subconscious, there is a little voice that is worried about this.  However, it is worth worrying about?  I know have LED light bulbs in almost every sockets.  Where there was once a 100 watt bulb, now there is a 13 watt bulb.  Say I have 30 bulbs in my house, at an average of 13 watts (although it is probably less because a lot of the bulbs are smaller candelabra style at only 6 watts).  That 390 watts.  If I run the lights 24 hours a day, it would total $410/year ( according to this online calculator ).  Say that I am vigilant and only run the lights 4 hours/day, that would cost $68/year.  To leave my

If you are a Republican in Congress and you have been running on a platform of dismantling Obamacare, reducing taxes, and deregulating business; what will you run on if you actually achieve those things.  However, if you come really close to those goals, but don't actually pass meaningful legislation, you can continue to run on that same platform forever.  You can continue to blame the democrats and maintain an urgency to get more seats in Congress to actually pass the laws they "wanted" the entire time. 

What I found most compelling about the first indictments from the Mueller special investigation was that it revolved around various types of financial fraud.  Although, I am reluctant to believe that Trump actively and personally colluded with the Russians (and not because the Russians didn't try), I would definitely believe that Trump committed a variety of financial crimes over the past 40 years (tax evasion, lying on paperwork, and potentially money laundering). There have been some pretty well known instances of Trump using very sketchy financial tactics, including keeping multiple sets of books , and vastly complicated ownership structures.  The Trump Organization is very large, but is privately held and therefore they are no external stock owners to review financial records.  According to Trump's FEC disclosure form, it lists him as a director or president of 515 different LLCs.  I think it is mostly legitimate for the Mueller to investigate if Russian money went to Trump

Steve Bannon is trying to replace (almost) all established Republican Senators with people that more closely match his political philosophy.  Assuming he is able to replace even one Senator with his own choice in 2018, how will the Republican Senators who are up for re-election in 2020 react (Only 8 Rep Senators are up for election in 2018, but there are 22 in 2020)?  Will Trump actively support the Bannon candidates, even through he would be going against sitting Republicans?  If he doesn't, will his base be disappointed that he isn't standing with them? Will the Republican Senators continue to support Trump even through Bannon is trying to get them replaced?  Will they become so "loyal" that Bannon doesn't need to bother?  Or will they turn on Trump to protect themselves?  What a mess.

It has been over a decade since people thought the Congress was going an barely acceptable job (when they had a pathetic 40% approval rating ).  In the last six years, it has gotten even worse, with the approval rating consistently less than 20%.  However, elected officials, from both parties, continued to get re-elected and act in ways that is unproductive for this country.  In the last presidential election, it was clear that people desperately wanted something different, anything but the status quo.  Now Steve Bannon is doubling down on this sentiment and trying to run his own candidates against incumbent Republicans.  Those incumbents are very upset and perhaps they should be thinking "well, I did nothing for the people, I knew they disapproved of me, I didn't try to change, I kept taking money from special interests, but I never thought people who have a choice other than me".  Sadly, this new choice comes from a political and social philosophy that is frightening. 

@ nyjets   ‏ @Espngreeny @espngolic I have been a Jets fan my entire life; 40 years of cheering for the team that Joe Namath led to the Superbowl.  Around the moment of my conception, the Jets actually waived Joe Namath, unceremoniously throwing away their greatest legend.  They replaced him with Richard Todd, yes that's the same Richard Todd that nobody can remember.  That was the start of my life with the Jets.  In that time, I have seen the Jets rise and fall, up and down, never once getting back to the Super Bowl.  I can handle the losing, but over the past five years a new thought has slowly grown in the recesses of my conscious.  The Jets are a poorly run franchise, both unprofessional and incompetent.  This is just a fact. They are unable to draft good players on any consistent basis, the ownership is repellent and uninterested, the coaches are overwhelmed, and the players don't seem to have any passion for the game.  Their owner, Woody Johnson was born into the Johnso

I just finished watching Game of Thrones season 7.  It was mostly a disappointing season that seemed very rushed (especially the writing) and even silly at times.  One of the great things about the show is that each character gets the opportunity to fully develop, but Season 7 was about moving the plot along and putting the characters in the same location.  I guess it has to be done at some point, but the execution was just average.   As I watched the last few episodes, it became clear how the show is going to end.  Games of Thrones is a tragedy in every sense of the word.  Beloved characters are tortured and killed (I think every character has been imprisoned at some point).  The last few seasons have provided hope in a world of diminishing returns, but it is false hope. The lesson of the show is not how people can work together to achieve great things, but how people will fight each other to destroy all things.  In the end, the nature of the living will result in their exterminati

Will your job be automated?  If you know the answers the following questions, you will have your answer. How many people do  a specific job in the world? Average Annual Salary of job (including fringe)? How many years will someone be doing that job (years in demand)? Research and development cost to create technology to do your job? Cost to build one robot? Desired Profit Margin/unit? How many years with the unit last? Yearly cost to upkeep unit? For example, take the job of flight attendant (which I used as an example if the attached document).  There are 95,000 flight attendants (actual number), earning $55,000 per year (with benefits), and each flight attendant works for 20 years.  If it costs $10,000,000,000 (that's $10 Billion) to do the research to design a robot that can do everything a flight attendant can do, and costs $300,000 to build each robot, and $25,000 each year just for maintenance, would it make sense to automate this job.  Not only does it make sense,

As some point it will be cheaper for a company to automate a vast majority of the jobs in the world. This isn't just sectors like farming, manufacturing, and retail, but almost every sector of employment out there. The combination of flexible robotics and enhanced AI will eventually create a technology that can do your job (and do it better than you).  I am currently reading, Rise of Robots by Martin Ford , which delved into many of these issues.  The book is probably about 10x longer than it needs to be to make the same point, but that point is critically important to the future of our economic system. One thing the book didn't include (I'm 80% through) is a calculator of when it makes sense for an industry to automate any job.  For example, there is the cost of developing, building and maintaining the technology to replace everyone with a certain job, viewed against the current costs of a human doing that work (salary, healthcare, management).  If you have a common job (s

So many questions and such significant consequences. Can President Trump preemptively attack N. Korea without prior Congressional approval?  He did this in Syria, but that was different in a lot of ways. We are already in active combat in Syria, the threat Syria posed was not against Americans, and the potential response from Syria is limited.  In N. Korea, we don't have any active troops (although we have tens of thousands nearby), and the N. Korean response may be full on war (and hundreds of thousands, if not millions of deaths in S. Korea).  Congress needs to clarify right now if a preemptive attack is acceptable under the constitution.  This is not something that Trump can do, and than take back. What if S. Korea expelled all American forces from their country.  There is already a movement to do this.  If they believe Kim Jong-un would attack the South if the American forces were not there, then they clearly wouldn't do this. However, what if they said "Hey N. Kor

The US Senate is preparing to vote on the future of Obamacare.  Although the Republicans had years to prepare an alternative solution, they had nothing prepared after the election. Both parties have a terrible track record of fighting against something, without a solution ready.  Although the rhetoric of repealing Obamacare was popular on the stump, the reality is that is helped millions of people and the cost was burdened by the rich (Of course, there are problems with Obamacare and it does not address the issue of increasing premiums, or the fact that the companies who provide healthcare make profits by not providing healthcare).  Back to today's possible vote.  The Republicans in the Senate have failed to pass meaningful legislation, but that doesn't mean that can't have a meaningful vote.  Specifically, any Senator that votes to repeal Obamacare (with the vague believe that they would replace it with something better afterwards), can go back to their voters and say &quo

The media is making a big deal that Trump's first 100 days are upon us.  They are evaluating the job he has done so far.  This drives me crazy. Who cares if he does something at day 75 or day 150?  This represents less than 10% of his term in office.  It is utterly and completely meaningless and reminds of companies in the stock market that get obsessed over quarterly earnings.  It artificially puts pressure to accomplish something without the benefit of time and consideration. Replacing the fundamental Health Care legislation in the country should time to deliberate and come up the best possible solution.  Same thing for tax reform, economic policies, and military strategies. On a related note, Trump seems like he is going to force out a new tax policy to meet the 100 day deadline. Expect huge cuts all around, larger than expected. This will really help his popularity.  He will insist that will boost the economy (which it might in the short term), but the deficit will be the lar

Up until the election, I got most of my news from The Guardian, the NYTimes, Washington Post, or the Daily Show.  Since the election, I found myself searching more and more news sites to get a more complete perspective on the world.  This included Foxnews, CNN, Brietbart, and Politico.  I was surprised to find 75% of the news on Brietbart to pretty reasonable.  Yes, some of the stories were inflammatory or taken well out of context, but most of the stories represented a real perspective in this country.  The comments by the readers are an entirely different story and are significantly more radical. The site that has most disappointed me is the NYTimes.  I am a very liberal person, but I want my news to be objective and the NYTimes just is not.  They actively spin the news to fit their agenda and the politics of their readers.  However, they still do a tremendous job of research and have some of the most comprehensive and original articles.  The Guardian still remains my favorite, alth

"I explained to the President of China that a trade deal with the U.S. will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!" - President Donald Trump via Twitter. I'm no expert, but this policy seems like an extraordinarily bad concept. Does these mean that the greater the threat that N. Korea is, the better the deal that China can expect for intervening.  In other words, if it is worth X amount of trade concessions to China to convince N. Korea to stop its nuclear program today, would it be worth even more if N. Korea advanced its nuclear capacity. N. Korea probably couldn't hit the United States with nuke now, but if they showed the ability to launch many nuclear ICBMs, that would raise the stakes.  The point is that China would gain leverage as N. Korea gets more threatening. Why wouldn't China secretly encourage (i.e. share materials, expertise) N. Korea to build up, if only to get a better deal from Trump. China certainly has the ability to i

The situation in North Korea is almost apocalyptic. The country is run by a ruthless dictator (the son of a dictator) who thinks he is a god. He has been worshiped his whole live and demands utter loyalty.  He learned that if a country has a nuclear deterrent, that it is almost impossible for any other country to attack. No nuclear power has ever been directly at war with another nuclear power. Kim Jong-Un has relentless continued to develop nuclear capacity (while abusing and neglecting his people).  Looking into the future, there are many bleak possibilities. 1) North Korea perfects nuclear weapons, but never used them. Kim Jong-Un continues to abuse his people. This is pretty bad for the 25million people who live there, but won't impact the rest of the world. Likelihood: 60%.  Why would he use nukes unless he is threatened.  2) North Korea perfects nuclear weapons and either used them or sell them to people who will use them.  This would be a disaster of epic proportions

I follow the news way to much, especially as I try to understand the issues from all perspectives. However, I randomly pulled up CNN (not one of my favorites) and saw "Just in: US drops largest non-nuclear bomb in Afghanistan".  Of course there are serious questions of such a significant military strike, but I'm currently more curious about how the rest of the news will handle/describe/report this and when. What sources just go with the story without confirming?  What sources jump to conclusions about this?  It has been 10 minutes already and no other media outlet has mentioned it.  Tick Toc? (Or maybe this is just fake news) Update: Two minutes later, the story is picked up by Fox News West Michigan  (not main fox news) and the Daily Star .  Ok, a minute later it is everywhere.  There is no way that all these media outlets have confirmed this independently (maybe there was a press release?) Next Update: Most of the very prominent liberal media sources (NYTimes,

It is careless and naive to think that Donald Trump does not have special traits or skills that make him exceptional.  True, he started with money and power, but he has turned a small fortune into an empire worth billions.  He started in real estate and built a conglomerate that has successful businesses in a variety of diverse sectors, including gambling, entertainment, resorts, and hotels. He has a mastery of bureaucracy, courts, systems, and communications.  There is something special about a person that can do this. Usually, someone that has achieved similar things might have an exceptional intellect, understanding of economics, is visionary, is charismatic, ridiculously dedicated, a great networker, confidence, or a combination of many things.  There are very few tremendously successful people that don't excel is something, that don't have a "superpower".  So what is Trump's superhuman ability? Perhaps Trump has the unique ability to be whatever you want hi

Do some conservatives believe the simple ideology that the states should just take care of everything except for national defense.  This simple idea would be a much more compelling argument than what they are trying now.  Repeal Obamacare, the federal government should do anything for healthcare; if you state wants to give you health insurance, go for it (for example, all children in NYS have access to free health insurance).  This completely removes the argument that repealing Obamacare (or any federal program) hurts people.  It isn't about helping or hurting people, it is about giving the responsibilities back to the states.  New York can have sanctuary cities (because their people want it), and Alabama can make it illegal (because that is what their people want).  New York can restrict fracking, but Idaho can have a giant fracking party.  It is their people and they will deal with the consequences.  The idea would be even better, if there was an automatic tax shift.  For example

There are so many things that don't many any sense.  The biggest is that after 6 years of focusing on the repeal and replacement of Obamacare, the Republicans seemingly are giving up after failing just once.  The original bill took years to develop and the Republicans (and Trump) think that if they can't work something out in just a month that it is time to just move on.  If the ACA is such a disaster, why not keep working on a solution?  You can (or are supposed) to be able to do more than one thing at a time.  However, what if the point wasn't to pass new healthcare laws?  Let's look at the actual results of the process.  1) No new laws, 2) Trump looks pretty bad and couldn't deliver, 3) Paul Ryan's position as Speaker is in jeopardy, 4) the Freedom Caucus (i.e. the Tea Party) showed significant power.  I don't think #1 is important, they still have 18 months to pass something before the next election. I don't think #2 is important, as Trump just doesn

Dear People Who Support Trump's Ideas, The election showed a real and powerful support for the ideas that Trump promoted.  The ideas behind "America First", "Build the Wall", and reducing the size and impact of the federal government are legitimate ideological concepts, even if you won't agree with it.  However, this message and movement currently lives and may die with Donald Trump.  If the movement continues to support him and he fails, the movement will lose both momentum and credibility. If he continues to lie and embarrass this country, at what point do you say that Trump was the wrong person to implement your agenda?  There is nothing wrong with saying that your message was good, but Trump lied to you about being the best person to promote it.  Perhaps, by even suggesting this, you can at least make Trump accountable to you.  If he believes that your support is unconditional, what is his motivation to actually do what you want? There have been ma

When I think of "super-villains", my mind goes write to comic books, but the truth is that there are real super villains in the world.  Let's not kid ourselves, but there are 5-10 people every century who are brilliant, charismatic, hard-working, determined, and completely immoral.  People who raise to positions of supreme power and do anything to keep that power.  People who have a complete disregard for life for life or liberty.  Often these people raise up through the political, military, intelligence, or business sectors.  There are the most known villains, like Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Tojo, and Chiang Kai-shek, but you also have to include Pablo Escobar, Al Capone, Pol Pot, Mohammed Omar, Ratko Mladić, and dozens of others.  There are people who are much worse than murders because they harm people on a mass scale.  People who are responsible for thousands of deaths, rapes,or enslavement either directly or indirectly.  We have seen dictators in every part of the globe .

I think there are some very fundamental differences in the perspective of people in this county.  It is important to recognize that others have a different set of basic values, which drives their lives and decisions.  I was thinking about what the questions would gleam those differences. Do you think it is your obligation to help those who have less?  Does it matter if those people are in your family, are your religion, are your race, are in your state, or are Americans? Do you feel that people who who disagree with you are bad? Who do you trust?  The media, religious leaders, scripture, experts, friends, family, etc? How important is faith to you?  If your religious perspective differs from the perspectives of "experts" in an area, what do you do? Of the groups that disagree with your perspective the most, how many of those people do you know very well?  (Muslims, evangelicals, homosexuals, atheists, socialists, transgender, white supremacists, black lives matters

Dear Democrats, Be very careful with the entire issue of Trump and Russia.  If you can't prove something, you will lose so much credibility, so early in the game.  If you cannot prove something this time, it will be used as an example of a "Democratic witch hunt that will once again lead nowhere."  Republicans will use this one failure over and over again to discredit any future allegations.  You should just stick to investigating "Russian interference in the election".  This way you only have to prove they did something, like hack into the email server.  And, as part of that investigation, something comes up against the administration, than cautiously move forward. There is one exception, which is if you really, truly believe there is collusion that will actively put Russian interests ahead of our own.  If you believe that, how could you not investigate?  However, don't be wrong! Coming soon, my fun conspiracy theory...

Dear Media, Please step back for a moment and look at the big picture.  Why are you reporting what you are reporting? Please explain that to the public.  Write an in-depth article on yourself, who you are, your point of view, and your mission.  Make it easy to understand, make it compelling, make it honest. Explain how you can endorse a candidate, but somehow cover that person fairly*.  Explain how you do or don't cover everyone's perspective evenly.  Write a variety of  articles that engages different people with opposite views.  Fight for your audience by showcasing your value! Ps, is there a media outlet that has at least two writers, from opposite perspectives, writing articles on the exact same topic.  Here is a view from the left and a view from the right (which is different than one article trying to stay in the middle). Pss, can  you please please please make a law that says "If you call yourself "news", you have to provide references for all factua

Commercials have become 30 second, high quality movies.  They are produced at such a professional level that they are able to convey almost any message about any product.  Although there is entertainment value in this, and some companies are better able to showcase their product, there is a very worrying trend.   You might have noticed commercials like this... This is a beautifully inspiring commercial, but the problem is that it is for big oil (more specifically, The American Petroleum Institute (API),  the largest U.S. trade association for the oil and natural gas industry.).  Their job is to ensure that huge oil companies can make as much money as possible, regardless of the consequences to anything else.  However, the commercial makes it seem like they are wonderful group of artists, models, and explorers. "Oil pumps life" seems like such a lovely concept. They are neither lying, nor telling the trust; this is propaganda in its purest form. Over the next few years, yo

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/02/ice-arrests-domestic-violence-victim-at-texas-courthouse.html?mid=emailshare_di The Trump immigration policy (which is either actively supported or simple ignored by almost every Republican in Congress), simply treats undocumented immigrants as a lesser kind of person.  They happened to be born in another country and came to the US for a better life.  However, they will soon be forced to live below the law.  They will refuse to ever go to any law enforcement agency out of fear of deportation.  If they are a victim of crime or a witness, they simply will not go.  This will inevitable lead to people committing more crimes against undocumented people.  They will no longer be protected by either the law or law enforcement. I ask everyone out there to put yourself in their place.  You are born into a poor area of Mexico, that is just where you happen to be born (you don't get to choose where you are born).  You grow up seeing some terribl

This sums it up... " “Conservatives do and should view [Trump] as their current best chance to get conservative policy enacted into law because that was the grand bargain made,” said Rory Cooper, a Republican strategist who opposed Trump’s candidacy for president. “The idea was they would overlook certain behaviors and distractions from President Trump in anticipation of being able to have a willing signature on the other end of conservative legislation.” Republicans will support/ignore whatever Trump does as long as he supports all their legislation.  It is a very simple concept.  Trump policies on immigration, trade, education, elections, etc., are not a concern for Republicans, so they won't object.  In return, Trump will (supposedly) support a conservative agenda to lower taxes, reduce public assistance, be pro-life, and reduce regulations of almost any kind.  It empowers both Trump and Republicans in Congress to be as aggressive as possible.  However, how will they re

@HuffingtonPost @CNNPolitics @politico When I studied political science, they explained that most people were moderate and fewer people had more extreme ideologies (top chart).  If this is the case, the way to win an election was to be as close to other candidate as possible, but very slightly to your ideology.  This meant that candidates were actually very similar and whoever was more mainstream won.  However, this might not apply anymore.  Perhaps there aren't very many moderates and people feel much stronger about their positions (second chart).  The implications are numerous.  In order to win your party's nomination, the candidate has to be more extreme.  Jeb Bush would have probably done great 20 years ago (attracting  moderate Republicans and Democrats, but now neither of those exist is large numbers).  So you end up with two candidates that are further and further from each other, with moderates disliking both of them.  So if the button chart reflects the population, ho

The media says “We are all from immigrant families, how can we discriminate against new immigration.  Immigrants built this country and helped make it great”.  Of course, this is technically true, but I fear that this line of reasoning is actually having the opposite effect of what they are trying to accomplish.  A significant number of people in this country, especially in the south, do not consider themselves immigrants, or their family immigrants. Tens of millions are descended from families that have been in this country for 400 or even 500 years; they were the ones that actually settled the land, build the first cities and farms, fought in the revolutionary war, wars with native Americans and Mexicans, the Civil War, WW1 and WW2.  They consider themselves truly “Americans” and fundamentally different from the immigration waves in the 19 th  and 20 th  century.  They see a completely different set of values in immigration, and many believe that every new immigrant is taking a job

😟 (nothing more to say)

I am shocked that Democrats in Congress don't have a plan (at least not yet) to really hold Republicans accountable for their support of Donald Trump.  They should circulate a petition that says "Good judgement is a part of being a good elected official.  I believe Donald Trump will be an excellent President and I support all of his Cabinet nominations.  When he is a great President, I want everyone to know that I supported him.  If he turns out to be a disaster, than my judgement is clearly poor and perhaps I am not fit for this position." Of course it could be written better, but there is no negative to this, even if Republicans don't sign it.  Unless Trump is great, but this really wouldn't change anything in that case either.  Democrats need to make a strong association that every Republican who supports Trump's nominees for executive orders is the same a Trump.  That they are "putting party above country".  Likewise, democrats need to get every

Nuclear weapons changed the world; they provided a deterrent unlike anything the world has ever known.  All previous wars in history would not have happened if either side had nuclear weapons.  Of course nuclear powers still have wars against each other, but now they are proxy wars (like Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc), but that is a story for a different day.   However, there is one technology that would reserve this.  With all the technological advances in the world, countries seem to fall flat trying to create this one thing, but eventually it will happen.  That technology is an extremely effective missile defense system.  It doesn't seem that difficult to create a technology that can identify an incoming missile (or bombs) and blast it out of the air (using a high powered laser would make sense).  Hypothetically, if China and Russia invested $100billion a year into this technology, for however long it takes, until they developed an effective laser grid, what would be the re

15 years ago, I made one of the best decisions on my life.  I had LASIK to correct my vision.  It took 5 minutes, costs about $3,000 and my vision has been wonderful ever since (more on that in a bit).  Prior to the surgery, my vision wasn't terrible, but bad enough that I had to wear contacts/glasses all the time.  I could have remained in contacts forever, but the investment was well worth the increase in quality of life.  How much money is it worth to never have to worry about contacts, or to be able to see in the middle of the night?  Over 15 years the cost of contacts would have easily exceeding $3,000, but even without those costs it would be worth it.  For 50 cents a day, I see clear. Appreciation of what you have is one of the most difficult things for anyone.  It is why people always seem to want more and don't actually become happier (even as technology makes our lives much easier).  I rarely appreciate the wonders of indoor plumbing, air-conditioning, cars, or comp

There was so much I could have written about the presidential election, but that time in past.  Perhaps one day, I'll write to write a retrospective.  I wanted to make a few quick predictions for the upcoming year. - Trump is justify many of his actions with a phrase similar to "I know things that you don't, which I can share because they are top secret, but Believe Me, there is a good reason for this."  This is a great line that can justify just about anything and impossible to disprove. I think this will become a powerful theme for the next year. - I don't know if it will be all out "trade war", but I firmly believe that he will be able to pass significant rules/legislation that reduces the incentives for companies to out-source to other countries. This is overwhelmingly popular among the masses, although it will be opposed to big corporations (who makes tons of money from outsourcing).  This could split the Republican party, but I think it will st