Goodbye Speaker Ryan

There are so many things that don't many any sense.  The biggest is that after 6 years of focusing on the repeal and replacement of Obamacare, the Republicans seemingly are giving up after failing just once.  The original bill took years to develop and the Republicans (and Trump) think that if they can't work something out in just a month that it is time to just move on.  If the ACA is such a disaster, why not keep working on a solution?  You can (or are supposed) to be able to do more than one thing at a time.  However, what if the point wasn't to pass new healthcare laws?  Let's look at the actual results of the process.  1) No new laws, 2) Trump looks pretty bad and couldn't deliver, 3) Paul Ryan's position as Speaker is in jeopardy, 4) the Freedom Caucus (i.e. the Tea Party) showed significant power.  I don't think #1 is important, they still have 18 months to pass something before the next election. I don't think #2 is important, as Trump just doesn't seem to care and his role in this is just one of a thousands things that people are going to talk about.  But #3 and #4 may be the key to what really happened.

Six months ago, Paul Ryan was considered by many to be the most powerful person in Washington.  He was Speaker of the House of Representatives that was clearly going to continue to have a significant Republican majority.  He is a professional, establishment politician.  Than when Trump became President, something amazing happened, Ryan fell in behind Trump.  He didn't have to, he could have tried to proclaim that Trump had so many problems that he should be the clear leader of the party (and the country).  I don't know what Trump said to him (more on Trump's superpower another post), but it convinced Ryan to be subservient. But why would Trump reward Ryan for his support; why would he trust Ryan; wouldn't it be better for Trump to have a Speaker of the House who was truly loyal, who owed his new role to Trump, somebody who could fundamentally shift the role of Congress from those who support the agenda of their constituents, to the ones who support the agenda of the President.  What is Trump knew the freedom caucus would defeat Ryan's bill. What if the goal had nothing to do with healthcare or the needs of Americans, but a quick (and it was very quick) way to embarrass Paul Ryan and set the stage for a new Speaker.

And you know who is next, Mitch McConnell.

In the end, how much power will Trump have to influence Congress?  He will entice "loyal" supporters with power and prestige and that will attract the type of politicians that he wants.  Will that be enough?

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