Can you bluff somebody with nothing to lose
So many questions and such significant consequences.
Can President Trump preemptively attack N. Korea without prior Congressional approval? He did this in Syria, but that was different in a lot of ways. We are already in active combat in Syria, the threat Syria posed was not against Americans, and the potential response from Syria is limited. In N. Korea, we don't have any active troops (although we have tens of thousands nearby), and the N. Korean response may be full on war (and hundreds of thousands, if not millions of deaths in S. Korea). Congress needs to clarify right now if a preemptive attack is acceptable under the constitution. This is not something that Trump can do, and than take back.
What if S. Korea expelled all American forces from their country. There is already a movement to do this. If they believe Kim Jong-un would attack the South if the American forces were not there, then they clearly wouldn't do this. However, what if they said "Hey N. Korea, we are throwing the American out. We don't want war. If the Americans attack, it is not because of us. Don't attack us, we are fellow Koreans and the Americans are trying to start a war between us." If this happened, would N. Korea turn some of their guns in a different direction? What if the Chinese brokered this deal?
The biggest question is, what would Kim Jong-un do if the US did something small (like blow up a missile testing site)? If he did nothing, the question would come up again when he tests his next missile (there is no way he is going to stop testing missiles as long as he thinks the US is a threat). At some point (perhaps immediately), his response to an attack would be war.
The impact of US intervention is not up to the US, it is up to Kim Jong-un. Are we willing to bet the lives of a million people in S. Korea (our allies) that Kim Jong-un is bluffing. If he backs down, war would be averted and he would live a little longer, but the threat of a US invasion would grow in his mind. Of course the US can't say we won't invade, as we have invaded several countries in very similar situations. Unless we know for sure was the N. Korean response is, it would be unconscionable to risk war. Since we will never know that, there is no possible option for a military response. Every past President has understood this and tried other options (which have not worked). Threatening N. Korea with military force should be a bluff on our part, we cannot go through with it. So why bother with the threats, it just makes N. Korea more aggressive in their pursuit of WMDs.
The other main question is; Would Kim Jong-un ever attack the US on his own (without the US threatening them)? Kim Jong-un is the son of dictator and probably has some significant issues, but would he ever do this. Has there ever been a case of a country starting a war, knowing that they would get obliterated. Has a nuclear power ever been directly attacked by a foreign government? Besides being crazy, why would he do this? Is that threat really credible?
Unless, South Korea, Japan, and our allies in the area are on board with any kind of attack, we just shouldn't risk it. Sometimes a terrible option is still the best option.
Can President Trump preemptively attack N. Korea without prior Congressional approval? He did this in Syria, but that was different in a lot of ways. We are already in active combat in Syria, the threat Syria posed was not against Americans, and the potential response from Syria is limited. In N. Korea, we don't have any active troops (although we have tens of thousands nearby), and the N. Korean response may be full on war (and hundreds of thousands, if not millions of deaths in S. Korea). Congress needs to clarify right now if a preemptive attack is acceptable under the constitution. This is not something that Trump can do, and than take back.
What if S. Korea expelled all American forces from their country. There is already a movement to do this. If they believe Kim Jong-un would attack the South if the American forces were not there, then they clearly wouldn't do this. However, what if they said "Hey N. Korea, we are throwing the American out. We don't want war. If the Americans attack, it is not because of us. Don't attack us, we are fellow Koreans and the Americans are trying to start a war between us." If this happened, would N. Korea turn some of their guns in a different direction? What if the Chinese brokered this deal?
The biggest question is, what would Kim Jong-un do if the US did something small (like blow up a missile testing site)? If he did nothing, the question would come up again when he tests his next missile (there is no way he is going to stop testing missiles as long as he thinks the US is a threat). At some point (perhaps immediately), his response to an attack would be war.
The impact of US intervention is not up to the US, it is up to Kim Jong-un. Are we willing to bet the lives of a million people in S. Korea (our allies) that Kim Jong-un is bluffing. If he backs down, war would be averted and he would live a little longer, but the threat of a US invasion would grow in his mind. Of course the US can't say we won't invade, as we have invaded several countries in very similar situations. Unless we know for sure was the N. Korean response is, it would be unconscionable to risk war. Since we will never know that, there is no possible option for a military response. Every past President has understood this and tried other options (which have not worked). Threatening N. Korea with military force should be a bluff on our part, we cannot go through with it. So why bother with the threats, it just makes N. Korea more aggressive in their pursuit of WMDs.
The other main question is; Would Kim Jong-un ever attack the US on his own (without the US threatening them)? Kim Jong-un is the son of dictator and probably has some significant issues, but would he ever do this. Has there ever been a case of a country starting a war, knowing that they would get obliterated. Has a nuclear power ever been directly attacked by a foreign government? Besides being crazy, why would he do this? Is that threat really credible?
Unless, South Korea, Japan, and our allies in the area are on board with any kind of attack, we just shouldn't risk it. Sometimes a terrible option is still the best option.
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