Peace in Korea? It could happen, but why?

Why did North Korea build up its nuclear capacity, only to start peace talks when their arsenal is finally adequate. What is the end-goal?

1) They want to ensure that no country will invade North Korea. The threat of a nuclear strike is enough to scare almost any country, particularly the US and our allies. Prior to this point, North Korea was able to threaten destruction of Seoul, with conventional weapons, as a deterrent. However, now those conventional weapons are largely unnecessary.  If this is their goal (to 100% avoid invasion), I don't see why North Korea would ever remove their nuclear capacity.  But maybe they don't have to. 

2) What if North Korea wants the removal of sanctions. I think the world would accept a deal to remove sanctions in return for complete removal of their nuclear weapons and programs. But the nuclear weapons were what caused the sanctions in the first place (not the government's treatment of their people).  It is possible that the sanctions have become overwhelming and North Korea is willing to make this deal (and the further along their nuclear program is, the more leverage they have).  This is particularly worrying because if the North Korean leaders are facing a real economic problem, they could sell nuclear technology or weapons.

3) Kim Jong-un and Trump want to be heros.  He could make some type of peace (or at least end the war), which would free him up to reduce spending on his conventional military (see #1).  This could open trade between the two countries, which benefits North Korea. China, Russian, and others could remove their sanctions, even if North Korea keeps their nuclear weapons.  Would the United States remove sanctions if North Korean did all kinds of nice things, but insists on keeping their nukes?  Pakistan managed to do this and it seems to be working.  I think Trump could get away with this, "North Korea has nuclear weapons, but they are allies now in the fight against terrorism.  I single-handily created peace in Korea after 60 years. This is the best deal ever. Now let's get back to tax cuts and building a wall here in America". 

4)  What if Kim Jong-un wants actual peace and to modernize his country. What if he sees the wealth of South Korea and wants a part of that. Under this scenario, he gives up his nuclear weapons in exchange for complete elimination of sanctions and billions in aid from other countries.  Russia made this deal when they broke down the Soviet Union and received tens of billions from the world to stabilize their economy and promote democracy (umm, that didn't work out so well, did it). The US clearly has no problem being friends (and giving money) to dictators or other authoritarian governments (see Afghanistan, Algeria, Myanmar, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, and many others). How much would it take for the US to bribe North Korea away from its nuclear weapons. This might be the only possible way to get the nukes.  Of course, this would further encourage other countries to develop nuclear weapons, and perhaps North Korea rebuilds their nukes again after taking our money.  Even with this, I can see Trump taking this chance.  He would proclaim that he is the greatest person in the history of the world, who ended the Korean War without any shots fired. Additionally, this option has the potential to actually help the North Korean people.

5) Where is China in all of this? Do they want to be the #1 country in the world, or not?. I am shocked they are not the main country organizing this, with the sames goals and methods that Trump might use.  Perhaps this will come in time. Perhaps the long-term plan is is designed to maximize China's part, while somehow diminishing (or humiliating) the US. China could add the critical element which allows North Korea to avoid the issue of needing a nuclear deterrent. China, North Korea (and maybe South Korea) signed a mutual protection treaty.  An attack on North Korea is an attack on China.   


Kim Jong-un is young and may be idealistic. Nobody knows what his goals are, but this is a unique time in the world in which he could take advantage of the "moral flexibility" of current leaders.

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