Dan Lipka Web Log

There is a decent chance that Donald Trump will be legitimately elected President in 2024 (he barely lost several key electoral votes, voting laws in those states will benefit him in the future, and Biden will be a weaker candidate). Democrats have an opportunity to enact rules and change law to prevent Trump from an extreme manipulations of the system. The can exact exact stronger disclosure laws, they can have regulations that prevent "acting" secretaries from staying in a position indefinitely (which avoids the needs to ever get anyone confirmed by the Senate), they can enact more oversight etc. Perhaps, they are waiting until after the 2022 elections, but there is a decent chance they will lose control of the House and/or the Senate making it impossible to even get these things on the agenda. They need to act now.

Baseball is losing popularity only because it is long, but also because it is boring (compared to other sports). Here is how to make it better. Pitch count timer (20 seconds to pitch, or whatever seems reasonable). Pitchers can call 2 20-second timeouts each inning. Batters cannot call time for any reason.  Batters (playing at home) are encouraged to celebrate homeruns as creatively as possible, as long as they don't taught the other team. There is a time limit to get around the bases, but they can do backflips from base to base as long at it doesn't take too long.  Batters are not allowed to celebrate if they are still down by 4+ runs after the home run, or leading by 4+ runs.  Batters (playing away) can celebrate wildly only when hitting a home run to tie or take the lead, and after the 7th inning.  Anyone who intentional hits a batters with a pitch is suspended by 60 games. This includes any coaches or other players that call for a batter to get hit. It is assault and ridicu

Just a silly thought after a long time of not writing anyway. Last night, I watched the Cowboys-Bucs game and each quarterback was almost perfect, except each of them had a great pass that was dropped, leading to an interception. Just like baseball has earned and unearned runs; football should have earned interceptions. The NFL keeps track of "drops" already, so if a player drops the ball, and the defense intercepts it, it doesn't count as an earned interception. It wasn't a bad pass and therefore should not count as a bad stat. It's a really easy thing to enact. 

You would think this was a big deal, but nobody seems to care. www.congress.gov Is it too much to ask the US Government to keep their website up and running.  Error 503 Backend fetch failed Backend fetch failed Guru Meditation: XID: 81887333 Varnish cache server

Remember when the tip of my finger stopped working. It was this time in history that I had a Mallet Finger. I wore a split for 6 weeks (without it ever falling off, even for a second) and now its magically 84% better. Hopefully, the remaining 16%  will come soon, but not a huge deal if it doesn't. Such is life. 

I've read a number of articles and seen a number of charts which project when a vast majority of eligible US residents will receive their COVID vaccine. I think they are vastly overestimating the number of people who are going to get the vaccine. If it reaches 60% of the total population (over 18) I would be very surprised. There are are probably 15-20% who will not get any vaccine under any circumstance. Than there are probably 20% that think this vaccine is too new and isn't proven to be safe. Maybe another 20% that will feel that they don't need the vaccine because everyone else is getting it. 20% that feel they aren't at risk because they are young or healthy. And another 20% that are just to lazy or busy to bother. Of course, many people fill into multiple categories, which is why you can't add up the percentages. Right now, in New York, there is a very short wait to get the vaccine. I don't think it is because they are extremely efficient, but that the dem

In a recent post,  I wrote about the very significant dangers of removing the filibuster from the US Senate. Thinking about it further, I know realize that if the Democrats don't remove the filibuster, the next time the Republicans control the House, the Senate, and Presidency, they will 100% get rid of the filibuster. It was shocking that it didn't happen during Trump's first term and they won't miss that opportunity again. Knowing this, Democrats have two options. The one I think it best for the country would be to enact a law that will keep the filibuster for another 20 years. After 15 years, the Congress would have to vote on what will happen after that law expires. If they don't do this, they should get rid of the filibuster as soon as possible. In 2022, the Republicans have a very good chance of winning a majority in the House and there would be deadlock once again. Take these two years to enact meaningful changes in voting rights, immigration, campaign financ

I'm astonished that the world isn't doing something to prevent (or at least manage) deepfakes . Currently, technology can distinguish between real videos and deepfakes, but that won't last long (perhaps a few years). At that time, there will be a video showing something extremely incriminating. The defense will just say the video is fake and put the burden of proof on the world to prove it is real. The defense will than create dozens of fake versions of the video showing different people involved. Without a way of discerning which is real, will this be the end of video evidence (voice manipulation will be just easy in the near future making audio evidence irrelevant).  To avoid (or at least delay) this problem, there must be a technological standard that functional designates video as unmodified. Furthermore, modified videos have to make it clear that it is modified (failure to do so must result in significant fines or even imprisonment). This also must include the severest

The US Senate is considering removing the Filibuster, which basically requires 60 votes to pass any legislation (instead of 51 votes, which is a majority). Although removing the Filibuster would allow the Democrats to pass sweeping legislation, it is a terribly dangerous precedent. We are only a slight demographic shift (or crisis) away from the Republicans controlling both Houses of Congress and the Presidency in four years. Imagine the turmoil it would cause for all the massive legislations the Democrats just enacted to not only be removed, but to be replaced with something as drastic on the other side of the political spectrum. It would be terrible for the country to have such dramatic shifts on a somewhat regular basis, and would exacerbate the pollical divide even more. Yes, the Filibuster slows down much needed reforms, but it also prevents significant problems. The laws and our budget are supposed to reflect the needs and desires of the whole country and if you can't manage

Last time there was a winter storm, my snow thrower (Toro 721r) crapped out.  (Background: My house is along a long driveway, with two other houses. The unwritten rule is that we all help clear the driveway, which has worked out well. One neighbor is great about this and I try to match his efforts (he is out more often, but I clear the whole driveway, including where he parks, when I go out there). But this neighbor also has a very bad back, although he doesn't complain. The other neighbor is new and doesn't come out as often, and doesn't have a snow thrower, instead he just uses a shovel, which isn't nearly as effective. Anyway, when my snow thrower died, the first neighbor did almost everything during a huge 24-hour storm that deposited 16 inches on snow. I felt really bad and offered to help, using his snow thrower, but he declined).  So my snow thrower wouldn't start. First, it would start with the choke on and stalled when I pushed the choke off. Than, it would

If the President cannot be prosecuted for any Federal Crime that occurs during their Presidency (according to the Justice Department), and the President also cannot be impeached if they are no longer in office (according to Republicans). Therefore, if a President conducts obvious, terrible federal crimes, in their final week of office, than how are they accountable in any conceivable way. There would literally be no way for Congress or the Justice Department to do anything. The President would be above the law. 

If Biden is serious about uniting the country, why doesn't he actually try policies that everyone agrees with. He should have monthly (or even weekly) in-person messages directly from the White House (like the old fireside chats). This will help remove the media from spinning the message. Here are some things that would be extremely popular (and great policy in my mind) - Fight to enact term-limits for members of Congress. This would be hugely unpopular among people in Congress, but is very popular among the population.  - Fight to reduce lifetime appointments of federal judges to a single 20, 25, or 30 year term.  - Fight to eliminate gerrymandering. Both Democrats and Republicans use gerrymandering to cheat voters.  - Provide states money to clean up their voting rolls. Who is against accurate information. - $1Trillion infrastructure investment. Trump said he wanted this, but didn't follow through. Everyone wants this and the country NEEDS it. - New federal agency to make gov

It's always nice when I find an article that thoughtfully explains what I am thinking. Impeaching Trump (for a 2nd time) won't accomplish any actual goals, or secure freedom or peace in the future. In fact, rushing such a vote is a terrible precedent. A thorough investigation, with testimonials from the those who invaded the capitol, copies on emails and social media posts, will do more to show how Trump was responsible than the impeachment will (and it will also investigate others who should be held accountable). In additional to that, censure is also appropriate, and would force elected officials in Congress to be on the record about this issue. Below is a link to an excellent article on this option. https://www.wbur.org/cognoscenti/2021/01/11/capitol-insurrection-censure-impeach-remove-donald-trump-charles-stewart-iii

When Fred Trump was well into his 80s and his mind was failing, his son, Donald took advantage of his ailing father, making sure to alter his will to leave himself with more money (at the expense of his siblings). What goes around, comes around. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Don Jr. takes this unique moment in time to throw his father under the boss and try to take control of the Trump political supporters. He can take full credit for everything successful his father did and distance himself from anything that is unpopular. "I was the driving force behind 'Make America Great Again', I've been the one who got him the Apprentice and was in charge of the successful real estate (Donald was in charge of the ones that failed), I was against Pence and Mattis from the beginning, etc." Don could announce that the Trump in all the QAnon theories really is referring to him as the savior. He could announce he will mostly likely run for President in four year and spend

It would be entirely consistent with the past four years if Mike Pence rejected the electoral votes that were certified from the states. Although he technically doesn't have this power, the law is not specific and I'm not sure it would matter anyway. If this happens, it would go to each state delegation for a vote (with each state getting the same, single vote). From there, there is a very likely chance that Trump would gain a majority of the electoral votes. Democrats could contest this in court, but it would be by the book. What happens next is completely unknown, but possibly terrifying. There could be major riots in cities. The House would almost certainly impeach Trump and Pence and with the Senate split evenly, there is a reasonable chance that Pence would like preside over Senate, as the law in not clear . Things could get really bad if the Justice Department (controlled by Trump), starts to arrest legislators (or their supporters, saying they are the ones who are commit